No, I haven't gone stark raving mad. No, I'm not suggesting that Mark Cavendish is ever going to wear the yellow jersey into Paris. And no, I'm not saying that he will still be racing in Grand Tours at the age of 37, as Lance Armstrong is doing.
What I am saying is that, on a day that Cavendish became the first man to win five stages in a single Tour de France since Armstrong himself in 2004, he is starting to show some of the characteristics which have made 'Big Tex' the centre of both competitive and media attention for so many years.
Three examples of how these two men – so different in so many other ways – are similar:
Yesterday’s stage from Bourgoin-Jallieu to Aubenas – relatively flat but with the category two climb of the Col de L’Escrinet just 16 km from the finish – was an obvious candidate for a harmless breakaway to have their day in the sun while the leading men saved their energies for Mont Ventoux tomorrow (in the case of the GC riders) and the Champs Élysées on Sunday (for the sprinters). Instead, it was Cavendish’s will which shape the outcome of the stage.
Like Armstrong in his US Postal & Discovery days, Cavendish has his Columbia HTC team focussed solely around him, completely subjugating their individual objectives. Having decided that, instead of trailing in behind in the autobus, he was going to get over the L’Escrinet and contest the finish, that then became his team’s sole aim. So when Cavendish and Columbia set off with the main bunch in pursuit of the day’s breakaway over the climb, that then forced Thor Hushovd to cover his wheel to defend his green jersey, which in turn ensured Milram worked for Gerald Ciolek, Rabobank for Oscar Freire and so on. From the repercussions of a single rider’s decision, the breakaway was thus doomed. Columbia nursed Cav over the mountain, worked hard to ensure the break was caught, and set up the sprint. Which, naturally, Cavendish then won, kicking with nearly 300 metres to go as Ciolek tried to sneak up on him and sustaining his speed to the line, eventually beating Hushovd by a length. It was mighty impressive stuff from a rider who is reputed to catch a cold at the first sign of an uphill gradient.
But like Armstrong used to do to his rivals in the mountains, Cavendish also sets the agenda for those around him, often influencing how the stage unfolds as well as its final result.
Secondly, Cavendish is always good for a quote and has the knack of dominating media attention even when he’s not winning. And, like Armstrong, you certainly don’t want to get on his wrong side. Such is the attention he demands, everything he says – both positive and negative - carries enormous weight, and he has the ability to manipulate the media accordingly with an openness and forthrightness which does not always win him friends, but certainly guarantees good copy.
There was a great demonstration of this yesterday, when Cavendish very publicly apologised to Hushovd for his derogatory comments after last Saturday’s stage to Besançon, when he said that it was clear the only way the Norwegian felt he could beat him to the green jersey was with the aid of the officials. (Cavendish had been relegated to the back of the field after supposedly obstructing Hushovd’s sprint at the finish, a decision which effectively settled the green jersey competition in the latter’s favour.)
He went on to back that up last night in his interviews. "After Thor's ride two days ago [when Hushovd led the way over the mountains to gain maximum points at two intermediate sprints], no one deserves to wear that jersey in Paris more than him," Cavendish said. "OK, I wore the jersey and I thought that I could have it, but that was because I'd been delivered into the best position by my team. But somebody who's fought for it like that – I can't compete with something like that. It was humiliating for me the other day. That was a beautiful ride by Thor. He's not just been put in the best position by his team. I got a bit carried away when I was in the race for the green but now I'm just concentrating on stage wins like I planned when I came into the race."
For a young man who has a reputation for speaking from the heart and shooting from the hip – and who his many detractors accuse of being arrogant – this was a remarkable display of humility and maturity from a man who sometimes allows his undoubted passion for the sport to overrule his head.
And that brings me on to the third point of similarity with Armstrong. Even though both present a polished persona to the public – Armstrong the elder statesman and the ’corporate’ face of the sport; Cavendish the cheeky young scallywag – behind the mask both burn with the same intense, single-minded competitive fire and volcanic temper. The stories of Armstrong’s private reactions to anything which displeases him are legion, and Cav is no different. They both know what they want, they are both 100% focussed on getting it, and woe betide anyone who stands in their way. That rage is part of what makes them winners; it is clear that, just like the American, Mark Cavendish frequently produces his best when he is angry and thinks the whole world is against him.
Overall, I get the sense that - at the tender age of 24 and in only his third full year as a pro - Cavendish is already one of the most powerful men in the professional peloton, in some ways even more so than the maillot jaune, Alberto Contador, with his faltering English and relatively reserved personality.
That is perhaps the most amazing thing of all.
Don’t get me wrong, Cav isn’t Lance yet. But then Lance wasn't the Lance we know either until after his first Tour win in 1999, at which point he was 27: three years older than Cavendish currently is.
Right here right now, Cav already has nine Tour stage wins to his name – more than other elite fast men Hushovd (seven wins) or Tom Boonen (six) - is unquestionably the most feared sprinter in the peloton and is able to command considerable influence on the road and many column inches off it. Imagine what he could be like in three years’ time, with a dozen more Grand Tour stage wins and possibly a green jersey or two under his belt.
So, let me say it once again: Mark Cavendish could be the new Lance Armstrong.
Doesn't seem so far fetched now does it?
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