Game over?

It just goes to show how much (or little) I know. This morning I assessed Bradley Wiggins’ chances of securing a top three finish at the Tour de France at around 60%. After today’s stage to Le Grand-Bornand, in which he finished over three minutes down on Frank and Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador, I have downgraded the odds to more like 30%.

I was correct in most of my other predictions, though, on a day on which two of the four individual riders’ competitions were all but mathematically ended, with near-decisive gaps being established in the other two.

The breakaways started pretty much from the off, with Thor Hushovd most notably getting involved for long enough to secure maximum points from the two intermediate sprints, extending his lead over Mark Cavendish in the points competition to 30 and all but guaranteeing himself the green jersey in Paris. Similarly, Franco Pellizotti effectively accumulated enough points in the King of the Mountains classification to secure the polka dot jersey.

The serious action, however, was reserved for the final two climbs of the day, the Col de Romme (making its Tour debut) and the Col de la Colombiėre, both featuring punishing long sections with gradients in excess of 10%.

First to try his luck at the foot of the Romme was defending champion Carlos Sastre, making one final attempt to ride himself back into contention. The attack was always likely to be futile, and so it proved to be as the leaders, in no mood to give any quarter, quickly reeled Sastre back in and then spat him out of the back. He would eventually finish 7’ 47” down and is now overall 13th, almost 12 minutes off the lead, his title defence over.

After that, it was the turn of the Schlecks, primarily Frank, to launch a series of spectacular, battering ram attacks which only the Astana duo of Contador and Andreas Klöden were able to match. The Garmin pair of Wiggins and Christian Vande Velde, Lance Armstrong and Vincenzo Nibali were all cast adrift. Armstrong played the faithful teammate, sitting in the wheels and refusing to drag the others back across the gap, and it was at this point that Wiggins’ podium place began to slip away. Lance would eventually ride away from him once he was sure he was spent, putting valuable time into the Brit ahead of tomorrow’s Annecy time trial.

Up the road, an exploratory attack by Contador served only to dislodge his own wing-man Klöden, but even then the Schlecks were unable to shake the Spaniard in the maillot jaune, and the three would finish together in Le Grand-Bornand - Frank first - over two minutes ahead of everyone else.

In so doing, Contador stretched his advantage over new second place man Andy Schleck to 2’ 26” (with Frank a further 59 seconds back), a sizeable advantage which he is likely to extend significantly tomorrow, effectively sealing overall victory barring catastrophe. And Andy Schleck now holds an advantage of nearly three minutes over Nibali in the white jersey competition for the best young rider, which should be more than sufficient for him to clinch the award for the second year running.

Wiggins eventually finished, alone, a creditable seventh, but 3’ 07” down on the leading three and is now relegated to sixth overall, 4’53” behind Contador. His deficit to Frank Schleck in third is only 79 seconds, so he stands an excellent chance of overhauling him tomorrow, but even if he does he will probably only have a small cushion to take to Mont Ventoux on Saturday to defend his podium place.

My best guess is that Contador will take an almost bulletproof advantage of four minutes or more to Ventoux, but that the next six – Wiggins, Armstrong, Klöden, Nibali and the Schlecks - will be separated by as little as a minute.

We may not see a head-to-head showdown to decide the maillot jaune on Saturday, as the race organisers had hoped, but with six riders likely to be in with a realistic chance of second or third, we are likely to see some serious fireworks on the ‘Giant of Provence’. I can’t wait.

Overall standings after stage 17:
1. Alberto Contador 72h 27' 09"
2. Andy Schleck @ 02' 26" behind
3. Frank Schleck @ 03' 25"
4. Lance Armstrong @ 03' 55"
5. Andréas Klöden @ 04' 44"
6. Bradley Wiggins @ 04' 53"
7. Vincenzo Nibali @ 05' 09"
8. Christian Vande Velde @ 08' 08"
9. Christophe Le Mevel @ 09' 19"
10. Mikel Astarloza @ 10' 50"