The week in numbers: w/e 16/5/10

56 - The number of people who died in the Bradford City fire, 25 years ago last week.

0 - After six races of the F1 season, we have yet to see any car other than the two Red Bulls start from pole position. (Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber have three each.)

0 - The FA Cup has never been won by a team relegated from the top flight of English football in the same season.

2 - The number of missed penalties in Saturday's FA Cup final, the first time this had ever happened.

4 - The number of times the leader's pink jersey has changed hands so far during the first eight stages of the Giro d'Italia. Bradley Wiggins claimed it on stage one, since when it has gone to Cadel Evans (stage two), Alexandre Vinokourov (stage three), Vincenzo Nibali (stage four) and Vinokourov again (stage seven).

2 - Last Wednesday's Europa League final was the second time goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer had played in the final of Europe's second cup competition, with two different clubs. On both occasions he has lost to a Spanish side.

1 - Yesterday was the England men's cricket team first win in five attempts in a world final. They beat Australia by seven wickets in the final of the World Twenty20.

17 - Runs required by Australia off the last five balls of their World Twenty20 semi-final against Pakistan. Mike Hussey then hit 22 off the next four.

99 - Final points total for Barcelona, who clinched the Primera Liga title last night. Runners-up Real Madrid finished on 96, which also surpassed the previous record total.

4 - The number of seasons Oxford United spent in the Conference before earning promotion back to League 2 yesterday with a victory over York City. Oxford had been the first winner of a major trophy to be relegated from the Football League in 2006.

120,000 - Pounds per week reportedly demanded by 33 year old William Gallas during his contract talks with Arsenal. Bye bye.

Arsenal and Vettel show leading doesn't equate to winning

This Premier League season has had almost as many twists and turns as Shanghai's Formula 1 circuit, but within the space of twelve hours yesterday we were given two clear demonstrations that being faster or better or simply ahead of your opponents is not an automatic ticket to victory.

Some of the greatest individuals and teams in sport dominate their events from start to finish (for instance, Michael Schumacher or the current Barcelona football team). Others save their best for last, building momentum at the perfect moment down the home straight. Football's most famous example of this is the Manchester United team of 1995/96, which bridged a seemingly unassailable 12-point gap to claim the Premier League title.

There are plenty of similar instances elsewhere in the sporting universe too: Dennis Taylor recovering from 8-0 down to win the 1985 World Snooker Championship; Greg LeMond overcoming a 50 second deficit in the final time trial stage to win the 1989 Tour de France by eight seconds; Nick Faldo coming from six shots back after three rounds to triumph at the 1996 US Masters.

Equally, for every great comeback, there is a contrasting example of the team or individual who put themselves in a commanding position, only to throw it all away. Call it a lack of belief or mental strength, or just plain 'choking', but their number is legion. For Man U, read Newcastle; for Taylor, LeMond and Faldo, read Steve Davis, Laurent Fignon and Greg Norman.

And, for the 2009/10 Premier League season, read Arsenal.

Wigan 3 Arsenal 2

Under Arsene Wenger, Arsenal have become specialists in late-season runs to overhaul the league leaders, putting together irresistible winning sequences en route to their 1998 and 2002 titles. However, they are also notably uncomfortable when they themselves are front-runners, twice wasting five-point leads late in the 2003 and 2007 seasons to concede the title to Man U. While neither of these concessions was of the magnitude of the one which cost Devon Loch, who literally stumbled within sight of the finish while leading the 1956 Grand National, it is a clear indication that the club prefers the role of greyhound rather than hare. 

The 2003 run-in was notorious for a crucial 2-2 draw at Bolton in which Arsenal frittered away a two goal lead in the last 20 minutes; this season we have seen an identical scenario play out at West Ham. At times this year, this team has shown great heart and fighting spirit when cast in the role of underdog. However, the old frailties of being unable to cope with the glare of the spotlight have surfaced repeatedly. And while the damage done by home-and-away defeats to both Chelsea and Man U was largely repaired, the ignominy of a first league defeat to Spurs in nearly 11 years last Wednesday merely reopened the wounds.

Yesterday, however, the team plumbed new depths. After Chelsea's defeat on Saturday, the players knew the importance of securing a victory which would have moved them back within three points of the summit. But having secured a spluttering two goal advantage at the DW Stadium - and having wasted several chances to bolster the potentially critical goal difference - Arsenal somehow contrived to concede three goals in the last ten minutes to extinguish their fading title aspirations.

The worst thing was you could see it coming. After Mikael Silvestre scored the second goal early in the second half, there was a visible drop-off in effort as a fog of complacency descended over the team. Chances went begging, and opponents' runs went untracked (Ben Watson's 80th minute effort that made it 2-1 came as a result of Abou Diaby's casual, half-hearted effort to fulfil his defensive duties). The manner of the capitulation may have been shocking, but the warning signs were clearly there - and totally ignored.

Now I don't mind being beaten by the better team, as happened recently when Barcelona knocked Arsenal out of this season's Champions League. But with the greatest of respect to Roberto Martinez's side, Wigan are not a better team than Arsenal. There is a reason why they have been flirting with relegation all season. However, they battled hard throughout yesterday and stood toe-to-toe with a side they knew was technically superior, and who switched off the moment they went 2-0 up, assuming the job was done.

Being better on paper - or for 80 minutes - does not confer an automatic right to victory. I have no complaints. Wigan got everything they deserved yesterday. So, too, did Arsenal.

Chinese Grand Prix, Shanghai

There is no question that Sebastian Vettel is an extremely quick and talented driver. Three poles and one win from the first four races of the 2010 season are testament to his speed and consistency when he gets himself into race-winning positions.

However, if there is one question mark hanging over him, it is his ability to drive through the field when fate deals him a mediocre hand. Having squandered pole position with a poor start yesterday, he lost further places in the tactical scramble which ensued when a combination of light rain and a safety car randomised the pack. With McLaren's Lewis Hamilton in close attendance, there was a clear contrast between the incision and aggression with which the Briton carved his way through the field and Vettel's more hesitant approach, most obviously when Vettel fumbled an overtaking attempt on Adrian Sutil at the end of the back straight, allowing Hamilton to dive past them both in a flash.

Hamilton is at his best chasing, when required to drive on instinct and emotion and not over-think; he is not the type to relentlessly crush his opposition with effortless lights-to-flag victories. Vettel seems to be the opposite: when he is out in front he is untouchable; when asked to charge through the midfield, less so. That's not necessarily a fatal flaw - in my lifetime, only Schumacher and Ayrton Senna have been routinely capable of winning a grand prix through both relentless dominance and stirring charges. (For prime examples of the latter, think of Schumacher's win from 16th on the grid at Spa in 1995, or Senna dancing his McLaren through the intermittent storms at Donington in 1993.)

There is no question that Vettel is one of the fastest men of the grid. Hamilton too. But neither won yesterday's race. While speed is critical in F1, it is not the only thing. Jenson Button won his second race of the season with the brave decision to stay on slicks when most others were switching to intermediates, and now leads the championship by ten points, confounding the pundits who insisted he would be blown into the weeds by Hamilton. Both his wins this season have come as a result of making the right split-second call on tyres, demonstrating a tactical intelligence (and a modicum of good fortune) which is currently keeping him ahead of the acknowledged speed merchants.

Many have already drawn the comparison of Hamilton and Button with the Senna/Alain Prost era at McLaren: fire and ice, the hot-blooded Latin who would just out-drive everyone else and the cool Frenchman who would out-think everyone. It's not a bad comparison. It doesn't matter how fast Hamilton is, how many times he outqualifies his teammate or how many laps he leads; in changeable conditions which push tactical nous to the fore, Button is finding a way to ensure he leads in the only place that matters: the final lap.

As the F1 circus moves back towards Europe and into the summer months, Button will be less likely to benefit from the wild card effect of changeable weather. Vettel and Hamilton will undoubtedly take their share of victories and podiums. (So too Fernando Alonso and the consistent if unspectacular Nico Rosberg.) But with the final third of the season featuring races in Belgium, Japan and Brazil - each with notoriously unpredictable conditions - only a fool would discount Button's chances if he remains in contention down the stretch.

Ultimately it doesn't really matter whether you prefer to win from the front or with a well-timed attack from behind - the greatest champions simply find a way to win, no matter what. And that is what separates the likes of Man U and Barcelona from Arsenal, and that means that Vettel will not have things all his own way.

Painful though that simple fact was from an Arsenal perspective yesterday, I wouldn't have it any other way. The right to be called 'champion' has to be earned; it is not simply conferred. That is why it means so much.

Van Persie and Campbell show the way forward for Arsenal

Tottenham 2 Arsenal 1

On a night on which Spurs took all three points from them for the first time in nearly 11 years, it was Arsenal’s oldest and most injured players – respectively, Sol Campbell and Robin van Persie – who provided the potential blueprint for future success for a club now destined to go trophy-less for the fifth consecutive season.

Campbell, 35, made his 20th appearance of the season for Arsenal last night, having been signed as something of an afterthought in January, and was outstanding throughout despite the incessant barrage of abuse he received from the home fans. Even though he has clearly lost a yard of pace over the years, he remains a redoubtable physical presence whose intelligence and anticipation remain undiminished, and he is a far more reliable proposition than Mikael Silvestre, three years his junior. Arsene Wenger will undoubtedly plunge into the transfer market this summer; his first move should be to offer a new one-year contract to Sol. Certainly Wenger acknowledged Campbell’s influence in his post-match interview, saying “He has shown the way to some players. What a winner he is. He showed what you need if you want to win titles.”

The oft-injured Van Persie was making his comeback after torn ankle ligaments had sidelined him for five months. By rights, he should have been rusty and off the pace. Instead, his 68th minute arrival transformed the match, providing a cutting edge to the Arsenal attack and demonstrating to Nicklas Bendtner that, for all that the young Dane has contributed to the scoresheet (nine goals in his last 11 games), there is a massive gulf separating him from the tag of ‘world-class striker’ he believes he deserves.

For nearly 70 minutes Tottenham keeper Heurelho Gomes had been a virtual spectator, with Arsenal’s only attempt on target being a bundled effort from – of all people – Campbell as early as the second minute. But, as Spurs began to tire after their Wembley exertions 72 hours previously, van Persie launched what seemed at times to be a one-man assault on the Brazilian’s goal, most notably a sumptuous effort in which, with his back to goal, he chested the ball down, swivelled and fired a fierce volley in one fluid movement which a diving Gomes did well to turn away.

Ultimately, it was too little too late, with Bendtner’s late tap-in – inevitably, van Persie was at the heart of the move – no more than a consolation.

The game had been lost long before van Persie’s arrival, though. On his league debut, 19-year-old Danny Rose had opened the scoring with a rasping 30-yard volley – truly, a candidate for goal of the season – after Manuel Almunia’s punch fell straight to him. And the second half had barely started when Gareth Bale raced clear of a shambolically invisible backline – how often have we said that about Arsenal this season? – to clip home the second, his first league goal in two and a half seasons, his previous one having also come against Arsenal.

On the night, it was clear to see how much Arsenal missed Cesc Fabregas, Andrey Arshavin, Alex Song, William Gallas and Thomas Vermaelen (who limped off with a calf strain after 20 minutes), not to mention Aaron Ramsey and Johan Djourou, who would have provided reinforcements from the bench. But that’s neither a complaint nor an excuse. Arsenal fans will have rightly expected greater leadership from senior campaigners such as Tomas Rosicky and Emmanuel Eboue and for younger (but hardly inexperienced) players like Denilson, Abou Diaby and Samir Nasri to step up to the plate. In reality, only Nasri and to a lesser extent Eboue have done so in recent weeks. It is a distinct weakness in a squad which is over-reliant on youthful potential and lacks consistency.

Which is exactly why Wenger needs to add more players like Campbell to his squad. His team is too dependent on Fabregas and, to a lesser extent, the likes of van Persie and Vermaelen to take games by the scruff of the neck. Too often there is a lack of purpose up front and a sense of barely-controlled panic at the back. One or two more experienced heads – as opposed to yet another promising teenager – could make all the difference in that respect.

The other key is keeping van Persie fit. It is no coincidence that, before last night, Arsenal had averaged 3.3 goals in games in which he had played, compared to 1.8 without him. It is futile to speculate on what might have been had the Dutchman played more this season, but suffice to say he has been sorely missed. Fabregas, Arshavin and Nasri provide the creativity from deeper positions, but he is the only one of the club’s batch of centre forwards who can truly turn a match with a moment of individual skill. Regardless of what his shirt says, Bendtner is an old-fashioned number nine who lacks pace and guile. Theo Walcott has pace to burn, but lacks physicality and aggression. Eduardo is no longer the player he was before his injury; he seems to actively avoid any potential 50:50 challenge. And Carlos Vela looks lost whenever he is asked to play in anything other than the Carling Cup (it’s no wonder he misplaced his passport and missed last week’s Camp Nou trip).

Summer signings

So what should be top of Arsenal’s shopping list this summer?

Firstly, a good luck charm for van Persie, who has missed a significant chunk of every season he has spent at the club through injury. But given that he is never likely to be a 50 game a year player, a quality lead-the-line striker is a must. If the rumours about the impending arrival of Bordeaux’s Marouane Chamakh are true, consider that box ticked.

Even if Campbell stays, the increasingly injury-prone Gallas and the ever-inept Silvestre are also out of contract this summer, and Philippe Senderos will undoubtedly be sold. Djourou’s return will help, but there is a clear need for another central defender, possibly two.

To strengthen the porous defence, I would target a new goalkeeper – I’m a fan of Lyon and France stopper Hugo Lloris – and another defensive midfielder who can partner Alex Song. I know Denilson has his supporters, but to my eyes he is too much of a bits-and-pieces player – decent at most things, but not exceptional at anything – and a liability defensively. And although Diaby is often compared to Patrick Vieira physically, the resemblance ends there; he is a good option going forward, but poor defensively. For me, Diaby is a great option from the bench; Denilson should be offloaded. And I would look for someone like Brazil’s Felipe Melo, who has struggled to settle at Juventus.

So, that would be four (five at most) new bodies in – targeting where possible players in their mid to late-twenties – with Campbell and hopefully Gallas re-signed, counterbalanced by the release of Silvestre and the sale of Senderos, Denilson and possibly Rosicky, with Jack Wilshere returning from his loan spell at Bolton to take his place.

To my eyes, there’s not a big gulf between this year’s squad which has challenged for honours, and one next year which could actually win them. A touch more experience and fewer injuries to key players could transform this team, and the last 20 minutes of a depressing defeat to the annoying neighbours showed me enough to suggest that a line-up like this would enhance Arsenal's prospects for a successful 2010/11 season.

Lloris

Sagna – Vermaelen – Gallas – Clichy

Song – Melo

Fabregas

Walcott - Van Persie – Nasri

Well, I can hope, can’t I?

Arsenal’s Champions League bid comes to a Messi end

Lionel Messi scored his fourth hat-trick of the season as he single-handedly reduced Arsenal’s Champions League aspirations to dust last night. No reflection on current and former Man U forwards Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo – world-class players both – but there can be little doubt he is currently the best footballer in the world. By a distance.

If last week’s game at the Emirates was akin to the Blitz as Barcelona peppered Manuel Almunia’s goal with shot after shot, then the return leg was more a succession of surgical strikes. Messi’s goals aside, Almunia had a surprisingly untroubled game – although not as much as Victor Valdes, whose only meaningful participation all night was to pick the ball out of his net after Nicklas Bendtner’s opening goal. Messi equalised within two minutes with a thunderous strike from 20 yards, and it was all downhill from there as he delivered a masterclass in the art of centre forward play. (Although – and this should take nothing away from the little Argentinian’s performance - it must be said Arsenal’s defending was, at times, extremely accommodating.)

In his post-match interviews, Arsene Wenger was more downcast than I have ever heard him, showering praise on Messi and acknowledging that his side simply weren’t good enough in the face of markedly superior opposition. For perhaps the first time, he is now talking openly about the need to strengthen a young squad which – Sol Campbell aside – was not added to during the January transfer window. There is a clear need for one (probably two) centre backs (Campbell, William Gallas and Mikael Silvestre are all out of contract this summer, and the out-of-favour Philippe Senderos is likely to be sold), goalkeeper, holding midfielder (as backup to Alex Song) and centre forward (although this already appears likely in the form of Bordeaux’s Marouane Chamakh).

Having said all that, the state of the current squad – which, let’s remember, is just three points off the top of the Premier League – is hardly shambolic, just a fraction short of that combination of quality and depth you need to be there rather than thereabouts. Some of the fans who phoned in to 5 Live after the game last night were well wide the mark in making such ludicrous suggestions as the squad needing a complete overhaul, or that it is time for Wenger to leave the club. A sense of perspective is important here. An Arsenal XI in which injury and suspension robbed Wenger of half his preferred starting line-up – captain Cesc Fabregas, Robin van Persie, Gallas, Song and Andrey Arshavin – as well as a number who would probably have travelled as part of the squad (Aaron Ramsey, Campbell, Johan Djourou, Kieran Gibbs) – was beaten by the Spanish, European and World club champions. There is no shame in that.

If any criticism is to be levelled at manager or team, it should be directed at the tactics employed when Arsenal did have the ball. Too frequently Theo Walcott was stranded out on the right touchline when perhaps he could have ventured inside; not often enough were quick, speculative balls played over the top behind the Barca defence for him to exploit with his pace. Bendtner’s control let him down on occasion. Almunia’s kicking was, as usual, woeful.

But it is easy to be too harsh. Arsenal found themselves in the unfamiliar position of being starved of possession and having to chase shadows, and over both legs consequently played like a team who don’t know how to hassle and harry effectively as a collective unit. It was a tough lesson, one of a number which hopefully will be absorbed by all at Arsenal. When we look back, the shame will not be in the fact of the defeat, nor even the manner of it – it will be if there is no learning or development resulting from it. We may all be surprised how a little wisdom and a little reinforcement (and some better luck with injuries) may be all that is required to turn this Arsenal side into one which can stand toe-to-toe with the very best England and Europe have to offer.

Cardiac Kids resurrect Arsenal’s Champions League dream

UEFA Champions League quarter-final, first leg: Arsenal 2 Barcelona 2

It was the 1980 Cleveland Browns who first earned the nickname ‘Kardiac Kids’ for their habit of winning games with heart-stopping late-game heroics. That moniker could be equally attached to an Arsenal team who tonight extended to eight a run of games in which they have scored in the closing ten minutes.

It is rare that an eagerly-awaited match truly lives up to the hype, but this game delivered on all counts. Barcelona simply ran rings around Arsenal in the first half - they had nine shots on target in the first 16 minutes alone - passing and moving the ball with pace and elegance when attacking, and pressing their opponents in unison to devastating effect when defending. Arsenal were left chasing shadows for much of the half, and grew increasingly frustrated as the Spanish team denied them time to respond in kind.

If not for Manuel Almunia, Arsenal's Spanish goalkeeper who had been much maligned after conceding a soft equaliser at Birmingham on Saturday, Barca would have booked their place in the semis inside the first half hour. Almunia produced four or five saves which were truly world class during that period, reminding those fans at the Emirates with short memories that he is a shot-stopper with excellent reflexes and agility.

There was little else for the home fans to cheer about in the first half. Andrey Arshavin limped off injured, quickly followed by William Gallas. Samir Nasri twice wriggled behind the visitors' defence to deliver tempting crosses, and saw one curling effort drift just wide of Victor Valdes' left-hand post. When half-time came with the scoreline remarkably still goalless, Arsenal fans wondered if perhaps they had weathered the storm. (Myself among them, as I was lulled into a cheeky bet on a 0-0 draw.)

Wrong. A mere 23 seconds of the second half had elapsed when Zlatan Ibrahimovic - who to that point had displayed all the shooting accuracy of Devon Malcolm bowling blindfolded - found himself running free behind the Arsenal back line after a simple ball over the top. In a moment which undid his first half excellence, Almunia charged off his line, got caught in no man's land, and was made to look something of a turnip as the giant Swede artfully lobbed the ball over him and into the unguarded net.

Thirteen minutes later, with Arsenal having responded quite well to that shocking setback - Nicklas Bendtner having stung Valdes' hands with a bullet header - another straightforward aerial ball allowed Ibrahimovic to run on and fire a howitzer past the blameless Almunia. Barcelona, the great artists, found themselves 2-0 up courtesy of two long balls straight out of the old Wimbledon playbook.

An hour gone. Two goals up away from home. See you in the semis, eh?

If there has been one valid criticism of Arsenal in recent years, it has been an obvious mental fragility when faced with a physical or superior team. Arsene Wenger's beautiful team has been scarred by the likes of Stoke and Bolton. But that simply hasn't been the case this year, despite losing four out of four games to Chelsea and Man U. This 2009/10 Arsenal side has rebounded from every setback, whether it was Aaron Ramsey's broken leg at Stoke, or coming back from being 2-0 down inside five minutes in Liege. And, all season, this side has scored late, late goals, turning draws into wins and defeats into draws.

So as Barcelona's early, unsustainable tempo waned and their thoughts started to turn to a seemingly comfortable second leg at Camp Nou, Arsenal slowly, inexorably started to regain a measure of parity in midfield. It still felt like clutching at straws, but there remained a shred of hope. All that was needed was a catalyst.

That catalyst was Theo Walcott. Absent for much of the season with injury, too often missing in action when playing, and harshly labelled by Chris Waddle as lacking 'a football brain', Walcott was Wenger's third and final substitution on 66 minutes. Last roll of the dice.

Within 60 seconds, Walcott had blown by Maxwell as if he wasn't there to slide a teasing cross across the area. Two minutes after that he repeated the feat, Bendtner slid a perfect through ball to him and Walcott instantly drove the ball under the diving Valdes. 1-2. A straw grasped.

Like flicking a switch, the mood inside the ground changed. Despair was replaced by hope. Arsenal surged forward, Barca retreated. All of a sudden it seemed there was a red shirt who was first to every loose ball, where previously it had been yellow.

And then: the moment. 84 minutes - note, inside the final ten. Bendtner, again, deftly directed the ball towards his captain and former Barcelona youth team player Cesc Fabregas. Definite contact from behind by Barca skipper Carles Puyol. A soft penalty (but a penalty nonetheless), and a red card for the unfortunate Puyol. Fabregas - as if there was ever any doubt - converted the chance by hammering the ball hard and low down the middle, but injured himself in the process.

No matter. 2-2. A breathtaking end to a breathtaking match.

With their two away goals, Barcelona remain favourites for the return leg next Tuesday, but their confidence will be shaken by the absence of both starting centre backs, Puyol and Gerard Pique (suspended as a result of receiving his third yellow card of the competition). For Arsenal, the inspirational Fabregas (who has a suspected broken fibula) will miss his homecoming next week after a slightly soft third booking, Gallas is apparently done for the season and Arshavin's calf injury also makes him doubtful. Even so, Arsenal will fancy their chances - certainly considerably more so than they would have done with thirty minutes still to play.

If the second leg next week is half as dramatic, we will be in for a treat. I certainly know where I'll be on Tuesday night.

Premier League contenders face their moment of truth

Could this weekend have a significant – and potentially decisive – influence on who wins this season’s Premier League?

I have been saying for several weeks the outcome of the title race will most likely be decided on the away form of Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal. After all, the top three – now separated by just two points – just keep on winning at home (where they have dropped a miserly 18 points between them thus far), while showing definite vulnerabilities on their travels, amassing 13 defeats combined.

This weekend, however, all three face challenging assignments. It is the last match-day on which at least one of the three does not have a relatively ‘easy’ (I use the word advisedly) game.

On paper, Arsenal – away to Birmingham – appear to have the toughest task. Alex McLeish’s side have only lost twice in the league at St Andrew’s, and are unbeaten at home since the end of September, a run which includes deserved draws against both Chelsea and United. Furthermore, Arsenal will be without their first-choice centre back pairing of Thomas Vermaelen (suspended) and William Gallas (calf), with striker Nicklas Bendtner rated as questionable at the time of writing, having not trained since twisting his ankle against West Ham on Saturday. If he is ruled out, there is the possibility that Eduardo could start on the ground where his leg was broken two years ago.

Man U visit Bolton, who have won three and drawn one of their last four league games at the Reebok, without conceding a goal. This has traditionally been a happy hunting ground for Alex Ferguson’s side, but with Bolton in decent form, set up the way new manager Owen Coyle wants them to play and just a few tantalising points away from safety, a surprise is not out of the question, particularly if Wayne Rooney’s knee – he was observed hobbling after Sunday’s victory over Liverpool – limits his participation. (Now I’ve said that, United will win 4-0 …)

Chelsea are the only one of the three to have the benefit of a home match, but it is against an Aston Villa team who are embroiled in a dog-fight for the fourth and final Champions League spot. (Just two points separate Tottenham, Man City, Liverpool and Villa.) Up front, John Carew is on a hot streak with eight goals in his last seven games in all competitions. At the back, no defence has conceded fewer goals than Villa’s (25). And as a team they are incredibly difficult to beat: no other team has suffered fewer defeats (five), and only the top three themselves have more points away from home this season.

After Chelsea’s thumping 5-0 win over soon-to-be-relegated Portsmouth last night, the mathematics of the title race are now much simpler. The top three have all played 31 games, United lead Chelsea by a point (who lead Arsenal by a further point) and after this weekend each club will have three home and three away games remaining.

Beyond this weekend, Chelsea certainly have the most difficult away programme by some distance, which must trouble Carlo Ancelotti:

Man U: Blackburn, Man City, Sunderland

Chelsea: Man U, Tottenham, Liverpool

Arsenal: Tottenham, Wigan, Blackburn

Even allowing for the fact that Chelsea’s remaining home games are relatively straightforward, with every possibility they could fail to win all three remaining away fixtures they still look to have more difficult games overall than either of their rivals. With no disrespect to their other opponents, United will view Chelsea (H), City (A) and Spurs (H) as their toughest challenges, while Arsene Wenger’s most serious threats are limited to Spurs (A) and City (H).

It genuinely is too close to call. Arsenal trail and have the longest injury list, but have the easiest run-in. Chelsea don’t have the distraction of the Champions League, but face a tough sequence of games. United are a Rooney injury away from potential disaster, but have the experience of leading down the stretch and will probably feel if they can avoid defeat to Chelsea, the title is theirs to lose.

Who do I think will win? My heart says Arsenal, but my head says United – just. But I expect there to be a few dramatic twists and turns before we know for sure, and this weekend could turn out to be a pivotal one when we look back at the end of the season.

Arsenal discover there really are no easy games in Europe

On the face of it, Arsenal fans have much to be depressed about after today's Champions League quarter-final draw. Being paired with Barcelona, champions of Spain, Europe and indeed the world, is disappointing enough. But a competitive record that reads played three, drawn one, lost two makes the task for Arsene Wenger’s men appear even more insurmountable. After all, statistics don’t lie.

Or do they?

Firstly, history is never the most reliable predictor of future performance. Of the eleven players who started the 2006 Champions League final for Arsenal only three – Emmanuel Eboue, Sol Campbell and Cesc Fabregas – are still at the club. Campbell (the scorer of Arsenal’s only goal that night) has also played for Portsmouth and Notts County during the interim and Eboue (who dubiously won the free kick from which Campbell scored) is now more of a super-sub than a starter. It’s the same picture if you look at Barcelona’s starting XI – goalscorers Samuel Eto’o and Juliano Belletti are now at Inter Milan and Chelsea respectively, and other star names such as Ronaldinho, Ludovic Giuly, Mark van Bommel and Deco have also long since moved on. The two sides who will meet at the Emirates in under a fortnight’s time are almost unrecognisable from the teams who played that night in Paris. So any historical comparisons should be taken with a large pinch of salt – or better still, ignored completely.

Even if you do take history into consideration, a more detailed examination of those three previous games provides clear signs of encouragement for the English side.

Let’s start with the 2006 Champions League final. Arsenal played for more than 70 minutes with ten men after goalkeeper Jens Lehmann was (rightly) sent off and took a 37th minute lead through Campbell’s header. It was an advantage they held until the final quarter of an hour, when substitute Henrik Larsson turned the game in Barca’s favour, with the equaliser carrying a strong hint of offside to it. To be fair, the better team won on the night, but Arsenal – a man down - had put in a great battling performance, and with a squad which (like this season’s one) had been largely written off mid-season.

The other two meetings took place during the Champions League group phase of the 1999/2000 season. A late Kanu goal earned Arsenal a 1-1 draw in Barcelona – so, if you want to look at it another way, Arsenal are unbeaten at Camp Nou – and although they lost the ‘home’ leg 4-2, the match was effectively played on a neutral ground, Wembley, rather than Highbury. So, again, applying the kind of spin Peter Mandelson would be proud of, Arsenal are actually unbeaten home and away against Barcelona.

Doesn’t seem too bad when you put it that way, does it?

Putting aside the manipulation of statistics – lies, damn lies and statistics, indeed! - the reality is that Arsenal will be underdogs going into this quarter-final. That is fair enough. But to write Arsenal off would be foolhardy. Twice already this season, the Londoners’ Premier League challenge has been prematurely dismissed (firstly after a humiliating home defeat to Chelsea before Christmas, then after back-to-back losses to Man U and Chelsea a few weeks ago), but each time the team has bounced back impressively to sustain an improbable – but far from impossible - tilt at the title.

Arsenal are quietly coming into form right now – or, at the very least, finding a way to win tight games by whatever means necessary (which works just as well for me) – and I get the impression that this team functions much better as an underdog than it does as a favourite. Barcelona, on the other hand, have recently shown signs of both fatigue and a slight dip in form, particularly away from Camp Nou.

Even allowing for my somewhat partisan view, there is certainly more than a glimmer of hope for Arsenal. Their chances of advancing to the semi-finals (where either Inter or CSKA Moscow will await) are perhaps only 35-40% - but that’s certainly better than Chelsea or Liverpool’s odds!

Whisper it quietly, I am not exactly unconfident about our prospects. With Fabregas in the team all things are possible, and Arsenal have developed a knack in recent seasons of turning over Europe’s big names (while simultaneously struggling against so-called ‘lesser’ teams): Juventus, Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, Inter at the San Siro, Roma at the Stadio Olimpico.

Yes, there are no easy games in Europe. But there are also no impossible ones.

As a footnote, I would like to congratulate Fulham, who last night overcame a 3-1 first-leg deficit – and then the concession of a second minute David Trezeguet goal – to defeat Juventus 5-4 on aggregate (4-1 on the night) and advance to the Europa League quarter-finals. It must surely have been one of the biggest nights in the club’s history. And it is testament to the managerial prowess of Roy Hodgson, who this time two years ago had just taken over a club who looked nailed-on certainties for relegation and has delivered nothing but positive progress ever since.

England’s next manager? Maybe, although there are several plausible arguments against his appointment whenever Fabio Capello decides to step down. But you would have a hard time convincing me that there is a better - or more likeable - English manager anywhere in the game right now.

Bendtner transforms from zero to hat-trick hero

Champions League round of 16: Arsenal 5 Porto 0 (6-2 aggregate)

Football, as the old saying goes, is a funny old game.

Barely 72 hours earlier, Nicklas Bendtner had missed two hat-tricks’ worth of chances in Arsenal’s nervy 3-1 win over Burnley. Tonight, facing the prospect of overturning a first-leg deficit in European competition – a feat no Arsenal side had achieved in over 30 years – Bendtner was the headline act, safely tucking away two finishes inside the first 25 minutes to steady the nerves and rounding off his night’s work with a last-minute penalty to complete his first ever hat-trick at senior level.

Bendtner’s first came after 10 minutes of one-way traffic, helping to settle the Emirates crowd’s nerves. Andrey Arshavin challenged – fairly – for a 50:50 ball with Porto goalie Helton, and the big Dane was first to the loose ball.

And again, on 25 minutes, after mesmerising footwork from Arshavin created space to slide a ball across the face of the six-yard box, Bendtner was lurking to tap in, like a proper old-fashioned centre forward.

Arshavin then scooped over from 12 yards with an open goal at his mercy - a chance which would have clinched the tie before halftime – and Arsenal then had to endure a nervy 15 minutes at the start of the second half as Porto pressed for the goal which would have forced extra time. Samir Nasri cleared off the line, then barely two minutes later set off on a mazy run through the left side of the Porto defence before finding a seemingly impossible angle between Helton and his far post. 3-0 on the night, 4-2 on aggregate, and effectively game over.

The rest was merely icing on an already sweet cake. A Porto corner, Arshavin stealing the ball on the edge of the Arsenal box, dribbling 60 yards and then threading a perfectly weighted pass for substitute Emmanuel Eboue to take around the keeper for 4-0. Then, with fans already streaming to the exits, it was Eboue again, this time upended in the box (for once, with no suggestion of the diving which has become almost synonymous with his name). Bendtner grabbed the ball, and completed his evening of personal redemption with an emphatic penalty.

One suspects the entire team had a point to prove tonight – that Arsenal, written off more times this season than a demolition derby car driven by Mr Magoo - can still be a formidable force even without their talismanic skipper Cesc Fabregas. From front to back, the men in red and white came out to play, from the rock-solid Thomas Vermaelen and Alex Song down the spine of the team, to the quicksilver surges of full backs Clichy and Sagna and the darting, intelligent movement of Arshavin, Nasri, Rosicky and Eboue, this was a night when Arsenal unveiled all Arsene Wenger’s beloved purist principles.

And the brightest of them all was Bendtner who, despite his implausibly bad day at the office, had been cheered off the pitch on Saturday. I remember remarking at the time that it was one of those games that even the very best strikers can have, that Bendtner at least possesses (in spades) the self-confidence that all top players need to have, and that he would still score some important goals down the stretch in both domestic and European competitions. Mind you, I wasn’t expecting the payback to be this big this soon!

The jury is still out on just how good Bendtner is, and how good he will ever be. It is easy to forget that he is still only 22. At that age Thierry Henry was still widely considered to be a failed winger at Juventus, while Didier Drogba was losing his place in Le Mans’ starting line-up to Daniel Cousin (who popped up most recently at Hull City and is currently on loan at Greek side Larissa). Now I’m not suggesting Bendtner will ever be in the same class as the above two players – he is still some considerable distance from even being the best striker currently at Arsenal – but he might yet become a very fine player. Only time will tell. Yes, he will have stinkers like Saturday, but he is also capable of scoring fine goals with both his head (the equaliser against Stoke ten days ago and his first league goal against Tottenham in December 2007 spring readily to mind) and his feet (the rasping 20-yard drive at the end of the 6-2 rout of Blackburn earlier this season).

After all, it was only a couple of years ago that most Arsenal fans – myself included – were wondering who this young but hopeless central midfielder Alex Song was, yet he has been arguably Arsenal’s most influential – certainly most improved – player this season after Fabregas.

Anyhow, Bendtner has repaid the faith shown to him by Arsenal fans on Saturday, in spades. We’ll be hoping it’s the beginning of great things. And in this topsy-turvy season, who knows what the final chapter will look like?

Tricky challenges await Arsenal in the quarter final (and potentially beyond): Barcelona and Real Madrid, both on record-setting pace in La Liga; possibly Chelsea and Manchester United, who have both done the Premier League double over the Gunners. But such concerns are for tomorrow; tonight, Arsenal – and Nicklas Bendtner - rule the roost.