Ramsey's tough break is like deja vu all over again

Stoke City 1 Arsenal 3

23 February 2008. It is the day before the Carling Cup final. Arsenal, playing away at Birmingham, lose Eduardo da Silva, whose leg is broken in a horrific tackle by Martin Taylor, for which the defender is - correctly - sent off.

27 February 2010. It is the day before the Carling Cup final. Arsenal, playing away at Stoke, lose Aaron Ramsey, whose leg is broken in a horrific tackle by Ryan Shawcross, for which the defender is - correctly - sent off.

Arsenal drew that match two years ago and, looking back, it was clearly the turning point in a title race the Londoners had been leading for most of the season, as a series of stuttering draws opened the door for Manchester United to gallop past and win the league. Captain William Gallas stomped off, kicked an advertising board, then staged a one-man sit-down sulk in the middle of the field after the final whistle.

Eduardo would not return to the game for a year and has, in truth, been a shadow of the player he was prior to his injury.

Although the odds remain against them, we may yet look back on tonight's game as the turning point in a title race in which Arsenal have been trailing for most of the season, with the potential for a series of wins against lower-ranked teams paving the way for them to gallop past Manchester United and Chelsea. Captain Cesc Fabregas led by example, regaining his composure and scoring Arsenal's second, a penalty, setting up Thomas Vermaelen for the third, then organising a team huddle in the middle of the field after the final whistle.

Ramsey will, at best, return some time in the middle of next season, after a second Arsenal term in which he has quietly but impressively developed as Fabregas's understudy. However, it has always been notoriously difficult to provide a definitive prognosis for serious leg injuries. For instance, whereas Ramsey's Arsenal teammate Abou Diaby recovered from a broken ankle in 2006 and is currently enjoying his best season ever, the career of Coventry's David Busst was ended in 1996 by a compound fracture of his right leg.

Regardless, I wish Ramsey nothing but the best for what will be a long, difficult and at times painful recovery. I'm sure most football fans would too in the cold light of day. 

I'm not really angry at Shawcross, who was immediately and visibly distraught in a way that looked 100% genuine. Football is a contact sport, and terrible things can happen when players have to make split-second decisions in the heat of battle. I'm just sad for the injured player, who is often the forgotten party once the blood starts boiling on radio phone-ins and the like.

The debate about how to eradicate and punish such dangerous challenges will doubtless rage on for a while. Vehement opinions on one side will claim Shawcross 'isn't that kind of player'. Equally strong views on the other will demand he is hung, drawn and quartered or, at the very least, banned for as long as Ramsey is out. (That being a notion which, incidentally, I absolutely do not subscribe to - for me, punishment should always be meted out in proportion to the severity of the offence, not the extent of any injury caused. I have seen worse tackles result in no injury, and equally bad injuries result without a player even being touched.)

How can I be so certain these views will be aired? Easy: we have been here before with the reaction to the Taylor/Eduardo incident. We football fans are nothing if not predictable.

Anyhow, after Chelsea's unexpected defeat at home to Manchester City earlier today, this battling victory against a Stoke side who have established themselves as Arsenal's nemesis means the gap to the leaders has halved from six to three points overnight. 

I should be celebrating tonight, right? Somehow, though, I really don't feel like it.

Good luck, Aaron. We look forward to your return.