A dark omen or a temporary aberration? Two points dropped or one point gained? Glass half empty or half full?
You pay your money and you take your choice.
It is certainly true that games such as last night match at Turf Moor, those involving long round-trips to play middle-ranking team in inhospitable conditions, are often a measure of the true position of a championship aspirant. However, it is also far too easy to assign too much pessimism (or optimism) to a single data point.
For instance, Arsenal’s 1998 title-winning run came off the back of a thoroughly dispiriting 3-1 home defeat against Blackburn – a performance every bit as poor as the scoreline suggests - and even the 2004 Invincibles side had to battle for a 1-1 draw at Bolton in a wintry midweek fixture similar to last night’s. Take either of those two results in isolation, and you would be amazed that these were both championship sides.
And, lest we forget, this is a Burnley side which has lost just one of its nine home league games this season (to Wigan, ironically one of the Premier League’s worst travellers), including wins against defending champions Man U and Sunderland, and a draw against top-four challenger Aston Villa.
So was a draw really so bad? Or does it only look so grim off the back of Sunday’s big win at Anfield, and the fact that Man U, Chelsea , Liverpool , Tottenham and Villa all won their midweek games?
Glass half-full?
Let’s start by looking at the positives.
Firstly, there is no question that the club’s injury list has had an enormous impact throughout the season, but with several players either recently recovered or soon to return, things should soon improve. In recent weeks, injuries have deprived the team of its most potent striker, Robin van Persie (gone for at least four months) and his back-up Nicklas Bendtner (out until the New Year), the first, second and third-choice left-backs (Gael Clichy, Kieran Gibbs and Armand Traore) and, just before half-time last night, captain and creative lynchpin Cesc Fabregas. Theo Walcott has barely played all season (and it really shows); Abou Diaby and Eduardo were just returning from injury last night; Denilson and Tomas Rosicky are sidelined, and Samir Nasri has not fully hit his stride since his long lay-off.
It’s certainly been a major contributory part of Arsenal’s recent problems, but a reason to be more optimistic looking forward. (Having said that, it should not be held up as an excuse. The reality is that injuries are part and parcel of the modern game, and big clubs are expected to have deep squads. Man U, for instance, can point to a defence which started on Tuesday minus Rio Ferdinand, Jonny Evans, Wes Brown, Gary Neville, Fabio and Rafael da Silva and John O’Shea.)
Secondly, Arsenal’s league position actually isn’t that bad. With more than half the season still to go- and a game in hand (at home to Bolton ) - they are potentially just five points behind leaders Chelsea and two behind Man U. (Which is not so shabby for a club who many ‘experts’ thought would struggle to retain their place in the top four.) Moreover, United’s defensive injury list is potentially crippling, and Chelsea Portsmouth Chelsea and Liverpool to follow in an 11-day span shortly after, it is clear that it is this two month spell out to mid-February – and not last night’s result - which will truly determine the outcome of Arsenal’s Premier League challenge.
And, finally, Arsene Wenger has made it clear that he will be looking to strengthen the squad in the January transfer window. In the past, notwithstanding last year’s capture of Andrei Arshavin, he has generally kept his wallet in his pocket during the winter window, so such news is welcome, even if he is unlikely to be spending mega-bucks.
Glass half-empty?
Naturally, there are negatives too.
The back four is dangerously short on depth, with any injury to Thomas Vermaelen or William Gallas requiring the less-than-reassuring Mikael Silvestre (currently looking every bit the fourth-choice left back) or Alex Song (who will be away at the African Cup of Nations) to stand in. Song will of course be missed in his holding midfield role during the African tournament, and there is no obvious like-for-like replacement. Manuel Almunia, a decent keeper who has played consistently above his level for the previous two seasons, is bereft of confidence and playing well below his level. Too many others are either playing poorly, inconsistently or struggling after injury, and beyond Fabregas and Arshavin the side lacks genuine match-winners which previous title sides boasted in abundance: Henry, Bergkamp, Pires, Ljungberg, Vieira et cetera.
And while last night’s result was certainly a disappointment, it was the manner of the performance which was particularly depressing. Having taken an early lead, Arsenal dominated until Burnley equalised, at which point you could visibly see the confidence drain out of the team. And once Fabregas went off, things became increasingly disjointed. There was plenty of tidy possession, but much of Arsenal’s play lacked purpose. I can’t remember Brian Jensen having to make a difficult save throughout the second half, and the most penetrating run from an Arsenal player in that period came not from Arshavin or Nasri or Walcott or Eduardo, but from Vermaelen, a centre back. In truth, it was Burnley who created the most threatening opportunities in the final 45 minutes, and were it not for the thickness of the post and an assistant’s flag, could have won 3-1.
In fact, the second half summed up Arsenal’s ongoing problems in a nutshell. Too often lacking genuine bite up front, and yet giving up scoring opportunities at the other end with alarming regularity. A tendency to dominate without scoring, and then struggle for long periods after conceding. Able to conjure up a thrilling win at Liverpool on a Sunday, and then subside to an insipid draw just 72 hours later. It is a pattern Arsenal fans have seen on more than a few occasions over the past couple of years.
The (not-so-final) verdict
Which is the real Arsenal? The Anfield lions or the Turf Moor lambs? We don’t really know, but – and this is perhaps the crux of the matter – I’m not really sure Wenger or the team themselves know either.
We will have to wait and see how this most unpredictable of seasons pans out. What seems certain is that Arsenal’s form will continue to fluctuate, and the media will be all too quick to deliver their black-or-white verdict based on individual passages of 90 minutes.
More fool those of us who choose to take their quick-fire judgments as bible. In truth, Arsenal are maybe only half as good as they looked at Anfield, but probably also twice as good as they looked last night (or in the 3-0 home defeat to Chelsea
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