Is Lance Armstrong really a contender?

The Giro d’Italia resumes today after its final rest day, but with only five days’ racing to the finish in Rome, questions continue to abound. Who will win the slugfest between Denis Menchov and Danilo di Luca for the maglia rosa? (The Russian currently leads by 39 seconds.) Can Carlos Sastre, winner of Monday’s murderous seven-hour mountain stage to Monte Petrano but still over two minutes behind, claw back enough time over the two remaining climbing finishes to mount a late challenge? Did Britian’s Mark Cavendish, winner of three sprint finishes, disrespect the Giro by withdrawing to save himself for the Tour de France?

And, perhaps the trickiest question of all: just what condition is 37-year old Lance Armstrong in?

Certainly, any vaguely romantic notion of Armstrong winning the Giro was quickly dispelled. After a competitive absence of nearly three years and a broken collarbone in March, the Giro was never going to be more than an extremely rigorous three-week tune-up.

Looked at objectively, it’s been a pretty good race so far for the Texan. He lies twelfth overall, albeit over 11 minutes behind Menchov. He looked to be lacking that final one or two per cent to live with the leaders on the tougher climbs in the first week of the race, which wasn’t really a surprise given his disrupted preparations. And a 13th-place finish in last Thursday’s 61km individual time trial seemed to confirm his current level of competitiveness: there or thereabouts, but not a genuine threat.

However, there were signs towards the end of Monday’s stage that he appears to be cycling himself into stronger form with every passing kilometre. After seven hours of near-40 degree heat, it was Armstrong who, unaided, put in a punishing stint to tow his struggling team leader Levi Leipheimer up to the finish, helping him limit his losses, and looking strong in doing so. It was mighty impressive stuff from a man unaccustomed to the role of workhorse.

It’s still difficult to judge Armstrong’s ultimate condition, as the pace he set ultimately brought Leipheimer home nearly three minutes behind Sastre, but equally they didn’t fall back into the clutches of others behind them, so the tempo must have been good. It is, however, now clear that he still has the stamina and strength of character to sustain his form through a three-week race while others fade around him.

The reality is we probably won’t know Armstrong’s true position until the second week of the Tour de France. There we will see which of his Giro rivals have peaked too soon and which have dosed their efforts to hit top form in July. Leipheimer will undoubtedly be stronger, despite his travails on Monday. And then there is the small matter of Astana teammate and 2007 winner Alberto Contador, who is absent from the Giro as he prepares for the Tour, for which he will start as favourite.

July may well reveal that Armstrong is only the third-best cyclist on his own team – which could be good enough for third place overall, and is probably as good a result as he can realistically hope for. But the little voice in my head keeps telling me not to write him off completely. The man has beaten cancer; overcoming the odds stacked against him wearing the maillot jaune in Paris for the eighth time on July 26th must seem simple by comparison.

Regardless of what happens, I’m willing to bet it will be one hell of a ride - simply because Lance Armstrong is one hell of a fighter, no matter what shape he's in.