Feet on the ground

Things are looking rosy at the Emirates Stadium, and it’s not just the red colour of Arsenal’s shirts. Despite the loss of record goal-scorer Thierry Henry over the summer and the resultant portents of doom it attracted, the Gunners sit proudly atop the Premier League, two points clear of an out-of-sorts Man U (who have played a game more), four ahead of Liverpool and five ahead of the political mess which is the billionaire’s plaything formerly known as Chelsea.

Surely – as some confident Gooners have already done on radio phone-in shows – we should stand ready to proclaim the return of the Premier League trophy to Arsenal? Plus the Champions League. And, while we’re at it, the FA and Carling Cups as well.

Me? I say (without a trace of originality) there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

It’s easy to be seduced by the league table, and by the pundits’ plaudits which go with it. The team IS undoubtedly playing beautiful football at the moment, scoring five goals for fun against Derby at the weekend. And there was the comprehensive 3-0 win over two-time UEFA Cup champions Sevilla last week. Not to mention the morale-boosting win at Spurs in the North London Derby the weekend before that. And a midfield general in Cesc Fabregas (amazingly, still only 20) who couldn’t score for toffee for much of last season, but is now scoring for fun.

So it’s all good, surely?

Hmm.

Here’s an example of why you shouldn’t necessarily take stats or facts at face value. Man U were Premier League champions last season, but they lost home and away to Arsenal. And West Ham did the double over both Arsenal and Man U. So doesn’t that make West Ham the best team in England?

Like I said, it’s easy to be seduced.

So let’s be glass half empty for a minute and look at some other statistics.

To date, Arsenal have played only two games against teams in the top half of the table (a sketchy 1-1 draw at Blackburn and a late 1-0 win over Man City). And three of those six wins have come against teams in the bottom four: Fulham, Derby and – it still amuses me to say it – Tottenham. Looking at the fixture list objectively, 19 points out of a possible 21 – while still impressive – is only slightly better than par.

Now we shouldn’t dismiss these results; after all, as the adage goes, you can only beat the opponent who is put in front of you. And it’s also true Arsenal dropped far too many points against teams at the wrong end of the table last season, losing at City and relegated Sheffield United and both home and away to West Ham, for instance. So there is already a marked improvement over last season in that respect.

But equally, it’s not like we’ve played and beaten the other members of the so-called ‘Big Four’ (Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea) either.

Oddly enough, that doesn’t worry me. Transitional and inexperienced though the team was last season, if you had drawn a mini league of last season’s top four, Arsenal would have been top with 11 points out of 18, including wins over Man U (twice) and Liverpool, and a brace of draws with Chelsea. Our ability to go toe-to-toe with the other big hitters is already proven; all we need to do now is repeat it.

So while my glass isn’t entirely full, it’s not half empty either. I can see potential rapidly becoming reality throughout this young Arsenal side, and while unanswered questions remain it is all too clear this is a better side than last season – and far better than virtually everyone anticipated.

I’m excited by what I’ve seen so far this season. I’m ready to believe. I’m just not ready to start rubbing everyone’s noses in it just yet. And that’s part of the beauty of football: we are where we are right now, but it is a long season and literally anything could happen between now and the end of it. A couple of long-term injuries, a loss of form and confidence, split factions in the dressing room and/or the boardroom, the departure of a hugely respected and successful manager, and things could change in the blink of an eye. Just ask Chelsea.

So we hope. We even dare to believe. But we also know how cruel a mistress this thing called sport can be. Which is why, for the next few weeks at least, my feet are staying firmly on the ground.

One final word on Chelsea. It’s tempting (and all too easy) to gloat at their current situation and write off their season. But they remain a team full of outstanding individual talents (that’s a deliberate and careful choice of words, there). They have already played two of their toughest away fixtures (Man U and Liverpool). And they remain only five points off the top – far bigger gaps have been recovered far later in the season. They are certainly a wounded beast right now, but write them off at your peril. Football’s funny like that.